What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 4%, implying a 4% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jun 17, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Weather

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17?

30°C

Closes Jun 17, 2026 (0d) 24h volume $14.7K Open interest $62.0K Event Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 17?

implied YES probability

-15.3pp 24h

Price history

Not enough price history yet.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 17 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Other outcomes in this event

Related stocks

HONG Leverage Shares 2X Long HON Daily ETF KONG Formidable Fortress ETF

Trade on Polymarket

Open on Polymarket

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.