What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 4%, implying a 4% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

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Will Ilia Topuria be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Ilia Topuria

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (196d) 24h volume $221 Open interest $7.4K Event Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?

implied YES probability

-6.2pp 24h

Price history

Last 91 days · High 80% · Low 4% · 7d -93.3pp · 30d -94.3pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.