What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 23%, implying a 23% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Crypto

↑ $4

Closes Jan 01, 2027 (198d) 24h volume $111 Open interest $96.0K Event What price will Lighter hit in 2026?

23%

implied YES probability

+0.5pp 24h

Last 90 days · High 30% · Low 8% · 7d +4.7pp · 30d +80.0pp

What price will Lighter hit before 2027?

Open on Polymarket

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.