What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 3%, implying a 3% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Pop Culture

Human moon landing in 2026?

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (196d) 24h volume $237 Open interest $22.4K Event Human moon landing in 2026?

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 91 days · High 6% · Low 3% · 7d -3.2pp · 30d 0.0pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.