polymarket
Weather
Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
17–19
20%
implied YES probability
+4.5pp 24h
Price history
Last 90 days ·
High 27% ·
Low 10%
· 7d -14.3pp
· 30d -28.6pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Other outcomes in this event
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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.