What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 50%, implying a 50% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Pop Culture

China invades Taiwan

Closes Jul 31, 2026 (44d) 24h volume $385 Open interest $736.4K Event What will happen before GTA VI?

50%

implied YES probability

Last 90 days · High 52% · Low 50% · 7d 0.0pp · 30d 0.0pp

This is a market on predicting events that will occur before the release of Grand Theft Auto VI.

Open on Polymarket

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.