What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 18%, implying a 18% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2028. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Crypto

Arc FDV above $5B one day after launch?

$5B

Closes Jan 01, 2028 (562d) 24h volume $5 Open interest $7.5K Event Arc FDV above ___ one day after launch?

18%

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 37 days · High 50% · Low 12% · 7d -2.7pp · 30d -62.5pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Arc's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Arc (https://x.com/arc) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.