What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 72%, implying a 72% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 12, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Sports

O/U 0.5 Rounds

Closes Jul 12, 2026 (2d) 24h volume $489 Open interest $2.6M Event UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)

72%

implied YES probability

-10.5pp 24h

Price history

Last 53 days · High 82% · Low 48% · 7d +18.0pp · 30d +65.7pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Max Holloway" if Max Holloway is officially declared the winner of the fight against Conor McGregor at UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, scheduled for July 11, 2026. It will resolve to "Conor McGregor" if Conor McGregor is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond July 25, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.