What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 38%, implying a 38% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Aug 01, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Finance

↑ $770

Closes Aug 01, 2026 (22d) 24h volume $4.1K Open interest $53.6K Event What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in July 2026?

38%

implied YES probability

+6.5pp 24h

Last 15 days · High 55% · Low 22% · 7d -35.3pp

What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in July 2026?

Open on Polymarket

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.