What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 17%, implying a 17% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 19, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Sports

Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?

Round of 16

Closes Jul 19, 2026 (32d) 24h volume $373 Open interest $12.1K Event World Cup: Japan Stage of Elimination

17%

implied YES probability

-1.5pp 24h

Price history

Last 10 days · High 47% · Low 14% · 7d -39.3pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which Japan is eliminated. If Japan wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If Japan is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by Japan based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.