What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 16%, implying a 16% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

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Will Frontier Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?

Frontier Airlines

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (196d) 24h volume $3 Open interest $24.3K Event Which airlines will announce bankruptcy by December 31?

16%

implied YES probability

+6.0pp 24h

Price history

Last 43 days · High 34% · Low 13% · 7d -30.4pp · 30d -31.9pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.