polymarket
Finance
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30?
97%
implied YES probability
Price history
Last 29 days ·
High 97% ·
Low 71%
· 7d +4.3pp
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) and the official closing price for the public company, for June 30, 2026.
NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day.
If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest data available.
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing.
If the private company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day.
Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time.
If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for the private company is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5bc8aa2b-22b5-48cc-b54a-1310145b0a86/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates. The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If SpaceX's valuation is equal to Tesla's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.
Recent news mentioning this market
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Stock Market Today, June 16: SpaceX Overtakes Amazon as Valuation Tops $2.8 Trillion
Yahoo Finance · 10h ago
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Stock Market Today, June 16: SpaceX Overtakes Amazon as Valuation Tops $2.8 Trillion
Motley Fool · 11h ago
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It Took SpaceX Just 1 Day to Reach a Milestone Tesla Has Never Achieved. Which Elon Musk-Led Stock Is the Better Buy in June?
Motley Fool · 13h ago
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SpaceX Is Now Bigger Than Amazon and Closing in on Microsoft. Here's How to Think About the Valuation.
Motley Fool · 8h ago
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SpaceX Continues to Rocket Higher. Here's What the Stock Could Be Worth in 6 Months, According to History.
Motley Fool · 9h ago
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