polymarket Finance

Will Tesla release Optimus by June 30, 2026?

June 30
Closes Dec 31, 2026 (196d) 24h volume $25 Open interest $22.0K Event Will Tesla release Optimus by...?
1%
implied YES probability

Price history

Last 84 days · High 11% · Low 0% · 7d -34.8pp · 30d -51.6pp
11%0%

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify. To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public. The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.

Other outcomes in this event

December 31
15% YES
24h vol $126

Recent news mentioning this market

Related stocks

TSLA Tesla, Inc. Common Stock

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.