What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 28%, implying a 28% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 19, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

polymarket Sports

Will England be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?

Semifinals

Closes Jul 19, 2026 (9d) 24h volume $188 Open interest $35.9K Event World Cup: England Stage of Elimination

28%

implied YES probability

Price history

Last 35 days · High 48% · Low 12% · 7d +89.7pp · 30d +89.7pp

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at which England is eliminated. If England wins the tournament, this market will resolve to 'Champion'. If England is disqualified, withdraws, is removed from the tournament, or the tournament is partially completed and not finished for any reason, this market will resolve according to the furthest completed round reached by England based on the best available official information. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled in full, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Other outcomes in this event

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.