What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 86%, implying a 86% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Aug 05, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Economics

Above 0

Closes Aug 05, 2026 (26d) 24h volume 645 Open interest 659 Event ADP employment change in Jul 2026?

86%

implied YES probability

+11.0pp 24h

Last 2 days · High 77% · Low 76%

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.