What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 40%, implying a 40% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Economics

At least 13.90M bpd

Closes Jan 01, 2027 (198d) 24h volume 5 Open interest 1.6K Event U.S. oil production per day in 2026

40%

implied YES probability

+6.0pp 24h

Last 31 days · High 67% · Low 37% · 7d -18.9pp · 30d -35.8pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.