What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 42%, implying a 42% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Politics

DEFIANCE Act

Closes Jan 01, 2027 (198d) 24h volume 208 Open interest 2.7K Event Which bills will become law in 2026?

42%

implied YES probability

+1.0pp 24h

Last 41 days · High 78% · Low 44% · 7d -17.0pp · 30d -26.7pp

Open on Kalshi

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.