What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 52%, implying a 52% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 15, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Economics

Above 546,719

Closes Jan 15, 2027 (189d) 24h volume 2.1K Open interest 2.0K Event New business applications monthly record in 2026?

52%

implied YES probability

-13.0pp 24h

Last 2 days · High 54% · Low 36%

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.