What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 14%, implying a 14% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 21, 2029. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Politics

Before 2029

Closes Jan 21, 2029 (949d) 24h volume 29 Open interest 37.7K Event Will the US take control of any part of Canada?

14%

implied YES probability

+4.0pp 24h

Last 84 days · High 18% · Low 11% · 7d 0.0pp · 30d -7.7pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.