What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 82%, implying a 82% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 08, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Elections

Reform UK, ≥20%

Closes Jul 08, 2027 (363d) 24h volume 829 Open interest 921 Event Clacton by-election margin of victory?

82%

implied YES probability

-4.0pp 24h

Last 2 days · High 87% · Low 81%

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.