What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 78%, implying a 78% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 08, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Elections

Reform UK, ≥30%

Closes Jul 08, 2027 (363d) 24h volume 251 Open interest 724 Event Clacton by-election margin of victory?

78%

implied YES probability

-3.0pp 24h

Last 2 days · High 80% · Low 67%

Open on Kalshi

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.