What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 16%, implying a 16% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 01, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Economics

Above 3.75%

Closes Jul 01, 2026 (14d) 24h volume 2.9K Open interest 6.8K Event SOFR at end of Q2 2026

16%

implied YES probability

+18.0pp 24h

Last 24 days · High 42% · Low 6% · 7d -73.1pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.