What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 32%, implying a 32% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Politics

Rating reduced

Closes Jan 01, 2027 (198d) 24h volume 524 Open interest 33.7K Event US credit rating downgrade in 2026?

32%

implied YES probability

+8.0pp 24h

Last 83 days · High 49% · Low 25% · 7d -5.7pp · 30d +6.5pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.