What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 30%, implying a 30% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Nov 01, 2028. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Elections

Will Gavin Newsom be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 1, 2028?

Gavin Newsom

Closes Nov 01, 2028 (845d) 24h volume 5 Open interest 2.2K Event Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)

30%

implied YES probability

-3.0pp 24h

Price history

Last 19 days · High 48% · Low 12% · 7d -24.4pp

Other outcomes in this event

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