What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 4%, implying a 4% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 01, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Elections

Before July 1, 2026

Closes Jul 01, 2026 (14d) 24h volume 1.3K Open interest 74.6K Event Miguel Díaz-Canel departure announced?

implied YES probability

-1.0pp 24h

Last 34 days · High 79% · Low 6% · 7d -60.0pp · 30d -92.4pp

Spread 1.0¢ · Mid 29.5¢

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.