What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 36%, implying a 36% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Sep 01, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Elections

Before September 1, 2026

Closes Sep 01, 2026 (76d) 24h volume 89 Open interest 32.3K Event Miguel Díaz-Canel departure announced?

36%

implied YES probability

+3.0pp 24h

Last 89 days · High 75% · Low 9% · 7d -43.9pp · 30d -34.7pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.