What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 86%, implying a 86% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 23, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Financials

Above 17.2 million

Closes Jul 23, 2026 (36d) 24h volume 4 Open interest 1.7K Event FedEx avg daily package volume in Q4

86%

implied YES probability

+3.0pp 24h

Last 48 days · High 85% · Low 54% · 7d +5.2pp · 30d +39.7pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.