What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 20%, implying a 20% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Mar 04, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Economics

More than 150,000

Closes Mar 04, 2027 (260d) 24h volume 4 Open interest 2.5K Event How many government employees will Trump cut?

20%

implied YES probability

-5.0pp 24h

Last 19 days · High 66% · Low 17% · 7d -62.2pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.