What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 38%, implying a 38% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 30, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Mentions

ADP

Closes Jul 30, 2026 (20d) 24h volume 1 Open interest 115 Event What will Kevin Warsh say during his July press conference?

38%

implied YES probability

+22.0pp 24h

Last 2 days · High 41% · Low 40%

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.