What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 38%, implying a 38% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Politics

Dot Plot Omitted

Closes Jan 01, 2027 (198d) 24h volume 17 Open interest 2.8K Event Which Federal Reserve precedents will be broken?

38%

implied YES probability

+3.0pp 24h

Last 8 days · High 59% · Low 36% · 7d -27.1pp

Open on Kalshi

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.