What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 36%, implying a 36% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 25, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Mentions

Decision / Judge

Closes Jul 25, 2026 (16d) 24h volume 9 Open interest 38 Event What will the announcers say during Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka III Fight

36%

implied YES probability

-29.0pp 24h

Last 4 days · High 85% · Low 39%

Open on Kalshi

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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.