What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 7%, implying a 7% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 01, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Climate and Weather

Will Arthur be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

Arthur

Closes Dec 01, 2026 (167d) 24h volume 3.1K Open interest 5.9K Event What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic this year?

implied YES probability

-23.0pp 24h

Price history

Last 31 days · High 37% · Low 6% · 7d -70.0pp · 30d -80.7pp

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Will Arthur be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?

Price history

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