What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 34%, implying a 34% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Aug 16, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Climate and Weather

1.17 to 1.23

Closes Aug 16, 2026 (37d) 24h volume 210 Open interest 244 Event Jul 2026 temperature increase?

34%

implied YES probability

+5.0pp 24h

Last 2 days · High 33% · Low 28%

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.