What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 14%, implying a 14% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Aug 16, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Climate and Weather

1.24 to 1.30

Closes Aug 16, 2026 (37d) 24h volume 200 Open interest 200 Event Jul 2026 temperature increase?

14%

implied YES probability

+9.0pp 24h

Not enough price history yet.

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.