What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 4%, implying a 4% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 14, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Politics

July 11

Closes Jul 14, 2026 (4d) 24h volume 561 Open interest 1.1K Event Peak Strait of Hormuz traffic (7/6 - 7/12)

4%

implied YES probability

-1.0pp 24h

Last 2 days · High 16% · Low 3%

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.