What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 51%, implying a 51% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 20, 2029. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Politics

Before Jan 20, 2029

Closes Jan 20, 2029 (948d) 24h volume 46 Open interest 42.1K Event Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act?

51%

implied YES probability

+1.0pp 24h

Last 84 days · High 63% · Low 48% · 7d -2.0pp · 30d +2.1pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.