What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 5%, implying a 5% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Mar 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Politics

Yes

Closes Mar 01, 2027 (257d) 24h volume 1.5K Open interest 104.5K Event Will Iran become a democracy in 2026?

5%

implied YES probability

+1.5pp 24h

Last 91 days · High 13% · Low 4% · 7d -17.7pp · 30d -27.1pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.