What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 44%, implying a 44% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Feb 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Economics

in 2026

Closes Feb 01, 2027 (229d) 24h volume 595 Open interest 4.0K Event U.S. imports from Iran >$5M in 2026?

44%

implied YES probability

+14.9pp 24h

Last 58 days · High 46% · Low 18% · 7d +47.3pp · 30d -10.8pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.