What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 28%, implying a 28% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Aug 03, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Economics

At least 54

Closes Aug 03, 2026 (24d) 24h volume 100 Open interest 455 Event ISM Manufacturing PMI in July

28%

implied YES probability

+1.0pp 24h

Last 7 days · High 33% · Low 23%

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.