What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 78%, implying a 78% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 16, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Economics

At least 210,000

Closes Jul 16, 2026 (6d) 24h volume 10 Open interest 10 Event Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11, 2026

78%

implied YES probability

+99.0pp 24h

Not enough price history yet.

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.