What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 4%, implying a 4% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 30, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Elections

Reform UK

Closes Jul 30, 2027 (385d) 24h volume 93 Open interest 4.7K Event Greater Manchester mayoral election winner?

implied YES probability

Last 10 days · High 10% · Low 2% · 7d 0.0pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.