What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 30%, implying a 30% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 20, 2029. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Politics

Before Jan 20, 2029

Closes Jan 20, 2029 (948d) 24h volume 35 Open interest 15.1K Event Will Trump impose martial law before his term ends?

30%

implied YES probability

Last 41 days · High 44% · Low 28% · 7d -17.1pp · 30d -17.1pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.