What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 29%, implying a 29% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Aug 04, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Politics

At least 50

Closes Aug 04, 2026 (25d) 24h volume 8.3K Open interest 18.1K Event Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (July 2026)

29%

implied YES probability

-2.0pp 24h

Last 7 days · High 88% · Low 31%

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.