What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 20%, implying a 20% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jul 07, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Politics

At least 80

Closes Jul 07, 2026 (20d) 24h volume 2.2K Open interest 3.6K Event Strait of Hormuz: highest single-day traffic (June 2026)

20%

implied YES probability

-2.0pp 24h

Last 1 days · High 22% · Low 22%

Not enough price history yet.

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.