kalshi
Elections
Who will win the 2026 Maine Senate election?
Troy Jackson
34%
implied YES probability
+3.0pp 24h
Price history
Last 3 days ·
High 35% ·
Low 32%
Other outcomes in this event
Recent news mentioning this market
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Maine Democrats seek path forward in critical US Senate race
Investing.com · 3h ago
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Factbox-Who could replace Maine US Senate candidate Graham Platner?
Investing.com · 3h ago
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How the Democrats Will Replace Platner on Maine’s Senate Ballot
Bloomberg Politics · 7h ago
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U.S. midterms: Democrat Graham Platner drops out of Maine Senate race
Seeking Alpha · 8h ago
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Platner Drops Maine Senate Bid After Sexual Assault Allegation
Bloomberg Politics · 15h ago
AI analysis
The prediction market for the 2026 Maine Senate election is currently pricing in a 34% probability of a specific candidate winning. This assessment is informed by known facts such as the candidates' past performances, current polling data, and campaign developments up until the specified close date. The market's consensus suggests that this particular candidate has a relatively strong chance of emerging victorious, although it is not yet clear what factors will ultimately sway voters. Any significant changes in the candidates' campaigns, new polling data, or shifts in voter sentiment could impact the price, potentially driving it higher if the favored candidate gains momentum or lower if their lead narrows.
Generated Jul 08, 2026
Top of book
| Bid | Size | Ask | Size | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34.0¢ | 1483 | 35.0¢ | 2841 | |
| 33.0¢ | 2466 | 36.0¢ | 543 | |
| 32.0¢ | 1020 | 37.0¢ | 484 | |
| 30.0¢ | 915 | 38.0¢ | 1507 | |
| 29.0¢ | 4351 | 39.0¢ | 10095 |
Spread 1.0¢ · Mid 34.5¢
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Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.