What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 5%, implying a 5% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Economics

Q1 2026

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (197d) 24h volume 13 Open interest 35.0K Event When will the next US recession start?

implied YES probability

+3.4pp 24h

Last 60 days · High 21% · Low 1% · 7d -31.6pp · 30d +644.4pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.