What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 20%, implying a 20% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2026. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Financials

5% or above

Closes Dec 31, 2026 (174d) 24h volume 111 Open interest 463 Event 10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?

20%

implied YES probability

Last 6 days · High 48% · Low 17%

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.