What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 67%, implying a 67% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Dec 31, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Entertainment

Project Hail Mary

Closes Dec 31, 2027 (562d) 24h volume 13 Open interest 2.4K Event Oscar nominees: Best Adapted Screenplay

67%

implied YES probability

Last 42 days · High 71% · Low 55% · 7d -9.9pp · 30d +8.5pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.