What is the current probability?

As of the latest cache refresh, the YES contract trades at 12%, implying a 12% chance of YES.

When does this market close?

This market closes on Jan 01, 2027. After close the venue settles the contract based on the official resolution source.

kalshi Politics

The Netherlands

Closes Jan 01, 2027 (198d) 24h volume 166 Open interest 812 Event Who will recognize Palestine before 2027?

12%

implied YES probability

+5.1pp 24h

Last 14 days · High 19% · Low 10% · 7d +36.4pp

Open on Kalshi

Frenzy Capital does not execute trades on prediction markets — we aggregate public order-book and trading data for analysis.

Prediction market data reflects speculative event probabilities, not guaranteed outcomes. This is not investment advice. See Terms §17.