kalshi
Politics
Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?
Before 2027
8%
implied YES probability
Price history
Last 91 days ·
High 28% ·
Low 7%
· 7d +4.3pp
· 30d -20.6pp
Recent news mentioning this market
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US Draft Deal Includes Financial Incentives for Iran | Balance of Power: Late Edition 06/16/2026
Bloomberg Politics · 5h ago
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BMW cuts 2026 outlook on China downturn, Iran war
Investing.com · 12h ago
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United States Lime & Minerals' Plunge Doesn't Offer A Chance To Buy In Cheap
Seeking Alpha News · 12h ago
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Trump says memo states clearly Iran will not have a nuclear weapon
Investing.com · 13h ago
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SpaceX Shares Surge, US & Iran Prepare for Deal Signing | The Opening Trade 6/16/2026
Bloomberg Markets · 17h ago
Top of book
| Bid | Size | Ask | Size | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.0¢ | 83 | 13.0¢ | 194 | |
| 11.0¢ | 19519 | 14.0¢ | 1238 | |
| 10.0¢ | 252 | 15.0¢ | 1323 | |
| 9.0¢ | 50 | 16.0¢ | 10 | |
| 7.2¢ | 29 | 17.0¢ | 1810 |
Spread 1.0¢ · Mid 12.5¢
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